I have to admit, I’m a bit intrigued by the “Colts in decline” mantra that feels like the national consensus outside of Indiana.
At issue, is the era of the Indianapolis Colts (more specifically Peyton Manning). This season, for some, seems to be the beginning of the end of the Colts. This season’s aberration is the unfortunate and proverbial “perfect storm”. But for many fans, the lessons of this season aren’t going away. The funny thing is, this team may not be either.
Sometimes theres more to the story than what show up in the win column. The Baseball Writers Association of America recently had to place a value on the win column in voting for the American League Cy Young. They gave the award to Felix Hernandez over the Yankee’s CC Sabathia (21 wins) and David Price of the Devil Rays (19 wins). Wins is often viewed as the key statistic in garnering votes. Not this year. Hernandez won the award by a comfortable margin.
Hernandez, who pitches for Seattle, won just 13 games and lost 12 as the Mariners finished 29 games out of first place and scored the lowest supporting run total of any team since 1973. There was a lot of speculation before the voting about the worthiness of Hernandez given the almost .500 record. However, when the Baseball Writers considered the context (lack run support) in his performance (in terms of fewer wins), their verdict came back loud and clear. Context is a factor. And in this case, may have made his achievement all the more astonishing. The writers awarded Hernandez 21 of 28 first place votes. A dominant 2.67 ERA stands on its own. He was the best pitcher in the American League in spite of not having the wins. I think the baseball writers got it right.
As with the case of Hernandez, the wins don’t even come close to telling the story of this season for the Indianapolis Colts, or Peyton Manning. That’s not to say the Colt’s will win the Super Bowl or that Manning should be the MVP. However, it’s not an apples to apples comparison of Manning and Tom Brady, as some have implied, to say that Brady has had a great year in spite of some adversity (losing Randy Moss and throwing to rookie Rob Gronowski). That’s like saying both President Obama and Haitian President René Préval had a tough year.
Tough is losing the 2007 NFL Defensive Player of the year again in the first quarter of the first game – then his replacement (Melvin Bullitt). Tough is losing another starting and promising corner Jerraud Powers (IR) and Kelvin Hayden questionable for much of the season. Tough is being without your defensive captain, Garry Bracket for six games and the other season-opening line backer, Clint Sessions, who is emerging but is still out. A patched together, next man up defense has turned into a wounded band of brothers who are now on the next, next, next man up. Tough is the group that “can’t stop the run”, quietly holding Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden, and Chris Johnson, below 50 yards rushing each. They’ve also quietly won four in a row with this rather motley crew of defenders. That’s tough in a tough situation.
Survival is when you again find yourself without your 2007 first round pick, WR Anthony Gonzalez (IR). Without one of the best tight ends in the league, Dallas Clark(IR), and slot receiver Austin Collie(IR), who tied Percy Harvin last year for league receptions by a rookie. Sure that leaves Canton-bound Reggie Wayne. BUT for all his talent, week in and week out he draws the top corners in the league and often double coverage forcing Manning to go to Hatian-born Piere Garcon. I’m not sure Danny Woodhead’s emergence from a division III program is a liability that Brady had to overcome any more than Garcon’s on emergence from Union College was for Manning. Both great stories. Just keeping it apples to apples.
If you think the Colt’s are down to a fish and two sticks, that might seem like a feast to them.
It’s true that Manning gets rid of the ball quicker than anyone in the league. However, he does need a COUPLE of seconds and maybe a half more as some of the new faces try to get a interpret the complex defenses and stay on route. For that, the Colts need a back that can pick up the blitz and catch a pass. For twelve games this season, the backfield has been a carousel. The loss of Joseph Addai for six games was painful. But the Colts now have him back and seem to have found a running game in the process. (another fact that seems to be overlooked).
The pundits just like to say the Colts are last in the league at “something to do with running the football”; yards per carry, yards per game, yards per game over the last give years.. whatever. It’s been tough but things have changed and few seem to notice. Colt’s running backs are valued by their ability to block, receive and then run; in that order. By the way, the top offense and the top defense in the league didn’t make the playoffs (the Chargers). The closest the Colt’s came to a replacement for Addai is the electric but elderly Dominic Rhodes. Meanwhile Manning has been throwing to league unknowns Jacob Tamme and Blair White for most of the season. They’ve performed admirably but there has been an alarming number of drops by everyone – secondary included. I thought last week we might be on the verge of Tom Moore (the semi retired senior offensive guru) moving from consultant to the slot.
So what does this mean to Manning? Basically he’s been without two-thirds of his normal receiving core for most of the season. And the loss of a familiar set of hands would seem pretty significant considering the amount of repetition and improvisations required by the Manning passing game. The lack of experience in at receiver means every smart coach can now take away a lot of his options using their shut down corners and double coverage exclusively on Reggie Wayne. Incredibly, he has found a way to have another Pro Bowl year. The inexperience also means Peyton needs another half second – at times, because young players are still in development NOT because he’s losing his battle with “father time”. It means his pocket has been tighter and he’s been hit more often than the last few years. If his arm was not hit during the last throw of the Patriots game, he might (would) have handed New England another come from behind loss to the Colts.
We’re now down to a couple of sticks and the clouds seem to be rolling in via New York (weird season). We know that the health of the offensive line has been marginal at best and held together by the reliable Jeff Saturday. So considering a closing pocket and the loss of his best blocking back and the initiation of a host of new targets, I thinking it might be a bit premature to attribute much of this season’s adversity to Peyton. Even the string of interceptions were evidence that as great and experienced as Peyton is, he realized that he has to play within himself. His response to the losses, adversity and interceptions? He took ALL of the blame. It wasn’t his to shoulder but that’s what leaders do. He took the heat off the rest of the team and put it squarely on himself. That’s the reason for the “over the hill” talk.
So just like Manning’s theatrics at the line of scrimmage tempt the all-knowing corner into his lair, this season has also drawn the football gods into new territory. And as with the hungry linebacker, they just might find that “Peyton’s Code” has not at all been compromised or that the last chapter is being written. It just might just have been adversity’s way of showing us we’re at the beginning of the sequel, and the best is yet to come.